Whew!  We made it to 2012 after what was a tough year for many of us.  It was a challenging one for the book industry as well.Here are a few of my thoughts and predictions on trends for books, reading and publishing as the new year takes shape:

1. Books will continue to grow in prominence as a marketing/branding tool for everyone from professional athletes at the end of their shelf life (pun intended) to mall retailers seeking to generate more customer traffic. Along that line, author events will no longer exclusively be held in bookstores and libraries. You’ll find them in coffee shops, music/sport venues and even local mom and pop retail establishments.  This cross marketing will bring books to a wider audience and customers to new locations.

2. There will be a significant reduction (anywhere from 5-7%) in the price of printed books as eBooks continue to take hold. Bookstores that fail to match these discounts will suffer mightily as consumers expand the use of mobile apps to compare prices.

3. State and local budget shortfalls will lead to the continued demise of K-12 library services. School districts will look to the private sector for assistance in obtaining e-readers for their students. There will be a growing appreciation for these devices as a way to reduce costs, create more efficient learning experiences and literally reduce the backpack load of many students—a possible medical issue as anyone with kids can attest!

4. Knowledge management platforms will continue find their niche in higher education institutions and business settings as both look for better methods for collaboration and networking to increase efficiencies and improve process outcomes.  Applying this at the personal level, books that present information in bite-sized pieces with an emphasis on practical personal improvement will grow in popularity. For those who have alternative learning styles, I believe that more and more books will be offered in “CliffsNotes”-inspired audio and video delivery formats.

5. We will see explosive growth in the number of private books clubs and reading groups as people rebel against the trend toward isolation and try to pull back from our Internet-infused world. Many of these book communities will seek out dedicated, professional facilitators to lead these discussions and create a richer interactive experience.

6. The “Long Tail” principle will hit publishing with a vengeance (see Chris Anderson’s work, The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More).  I’ll go out on a limb and say there will be a ten-fold increase in the number of books published by 2020. Publishing and distributing a book is becoming easier, quicker and cheaper.  Anyone who thinks the world will care about his or her life story will be more tempted than ever to share it! Much of this new material will be offered by writers who are younger, radical and social media savvy.  Many of the books will be compilations of online blogs and journals documenting an author’s lifestyle experiences, angst and coping methods in a rapidly changing world.

7. Print on Demand machines, which produce just-in-time books, will proliferate in independent bookstores and libraries as these establishments try to stay relevant and compete with chain and on-line book outlets.  This technology works hand in glove with #6 (above), the growth of e-readers, and our “need the book now” mentality.

8. College and university libraries will be rebranded as “Digital Knowledge Centers,” emphasizing electronic access to books, periodicals and other learning materials. As a result, tech savvy library science professionals will be in huge demand as they take on the role of “knowledge facilitators.” In addition, many of these libraries will serve as incubation sites for start-up businesses, replete with access to business databases, training sessions with advisors and strategic partnerships with local businesses and governments.

9. The most popular book categories for 2012 will include Mystery Thrillers, Economics, Political Biography and Alternative Health. But Self-Help/Psychology will loom as the most popular category as many of us try to stay grounded after having been uncorked by the sustained recession!

10. Books will finally receive their due as the “Lingua Franca” of global connectedness. Instead of breaking the ice by asking someone what they do for a living, we will ask what they are reading. This will be recognized as a better basis for learning about a person and building rapport. And a nice change of pace from the narrow minded questions we get from others regarding our line of work.

Michael Scott is co-host of the weekly radio show, Bookmark Radio.  www.bookmarkradio.com